Keywords
Wildlife Management
UW420
Categories
How to Cite
Abstract
Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change. Written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling, and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, August 2016.
WEC375/UW420: Considerations for Building Climate-based Species Distribution Models (ufl.edu)
References
Bucklin, D.N., M. Basille, A.M. Benscoter, L.A. Brandt, F.J. Mazzotti, S.S. Romañach, C. Speroterra, and J.I. Watling. 2015. "Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors." Diversity and Distributions 21: 23-35. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12247 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12247
Maraun, D., F. Wetterhal, A.M. Ireson, R.E Chandler, E.J. Kendon, M. Widmann, et al. 2010. "Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user." Reviews of Geophysics 48(3): RG3003. DOI:10.1029/2009RG000314 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314
Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson. 2003. "Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?" Global Ecology and Biogeography 12(5): 361-371. DOI:10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x
Stefanova, L., V. Misra, S. Chan, M. Griffin, J.J. O'Brien, and T.J. Smith III. 2011. "A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the Southeast United States: assessment of precipitation variability in dynamically downscaled reanalyses." Climate Dynamics 38(11-12): 2449-2466. DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1230-y https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1230-y
Tabor, K., and J.W. Williams. 2010. "Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change." Ecological Applications 20(2): 554-565. DOI:10.1890/09-0173.1 https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0173.1
Watling, J.I., S.S. Romañach, D.N. Bucklin, C. Speroterra, L.A. Brandt, L.G. Pearlstine, and F.J. Mazzotti. 2012. "Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?" Ecological Modelling 246: 79-85. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.018 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.018
Watling, J.I., R.J Fletcher, C. Speroterra, D.N. Bucklin, L.A. Brandt, S.S. Romañach, L.G. Pearlstine, Y. Escribano, and F.J. Mazzotti. 2014. "Assessing Effects of Variation in Global Climate Data Sets on Spatial Predictions from Climate Envelope Models." Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 5(1): 14-25. DOI:10.3996/072012-JFWM-056 https://doi.org/10.3996/072012-JFWM-056
Watling, J.I., L.A. Brandt, D.N. Bucklin, I. Fujisaki, F.J. Mazzotti, S.S. Romañach, and C. Speroterra. 2015. "Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models." Ecological Modelling 309-310: 48-59. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.017 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.017