The Florida Citrus Perfect Storm: Disease, Weather and Market Swings

Abstract

We examine the changes in the average orange yield per acre in Florida during the last 30 years and found that there were two very apparent changes in its trend. The first change was during the period from 2007/08 to 2016/17, when the average orange yield per acre decreased by approximately 50%. Since no major weather events occurred during such a period, the decrease can be attributed to the impact of HLB. The second change started in 2017/18, when multiple economic and weather factors combined to further impact orange yield and its trend down. We also found that while the decrease in yield due to HLB was sizable for all tree age groups, Early- and Mid-season orange trees experienced a different impact pattern compared to that of Valencia orange trees. In particular, the yield of Valencia orange trees ages 9 to 13 were the least impacted whereas for the case of Early- and Mid-season orange trees, it was the yield of younger and older trees that decreased by the smallest percentage.