Fruit Drop: When to Harvest

Abstract

In 2020/21, fruit drop has severely impacted orange yield in Florida. According to the most recent USDA forecast, the estimate of fruit drop for Early & Mid-season and Valencia oranges is 43% and 34%, respectively. Moreover, according to some growers, the level of fruit drop has been as high as 60% in some groves. Given that the fruit reaches higher levels of Brix when maturing on the tree, the grower faces the dilemma of whether to harvest more fruit early on or delay the harvest to achieve higher quality. The answer to such a dilemma depends on yield, price, pound solids per box, any price premium on higher quality, harvesting cost, and, of course, the fruit drop rate. In this article, we show the calculations for establishing in which week it would have been more profitable to harvest Valencia oranges under cumulative fruit drop scenarios ranging from 20 to 60%.