How Are Our Future Agriculture and Natural Resources Projected under Varying Climate?
Storm rising over a farm.
Requires Subscription view on EDIS
Requires Subscription PDF-2020

How to Cite

Her, Young Gu, Ashley Smyth, Zachary Brym, and Elias Bassil. 2020. “How Are Our Future Agriculture and Natural Resources Projected under Varying Climate?”. EDIS 2020 (6). https://doi.org/10.32473/edis-ae545-2020.

Abstract

This 8-page article explains how agriculture and natural resources may respond to projected future climate and how climate projections can be useful in developing management plans for the improved sustainability of Florida’s agriculture and natural resources. It also aims to help increase the public awareness of climate change impacts on Florida and improve understanding of the connections among climate, agriculture, and natural resources. Written by Young Gu Her, Ashley Smyth, Zachary Brym, and Elias Bassil, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, September 2020.

https://doi.org/10.32473/edis-ae545-2020
Requires Subscription view on EDIS
Requires Subscription PDF-2020

References

Altieri, A. H., and K. B. Gedan. 2014. "Climate Change and Dead Zones." Global Change Biology 21: 1395-1406. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12754

Arbor Day Foundation. 2018. "Differences between 1990 USDA Hardiness Zones and 2015 Arborday.org Hardiness Zones." https://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm

Ban, S. S., H. M. Alidina, T. A. Okey, R. M. Gregg, and N. C. Ban. 2016. "Identifying Potential Marine Climate Change Refugia: A Case Study in Canada's Pacific Marine Ecosystems." Global Ecology and Conservation 8: 41-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2016.07.004

Bauman, A. G., J. A. Burt, D. A. Feary, E. Marquis, and P. Usseglio. 2010. "Tropical Harmful Algal Blooms: An Emerging Threat to Coral Reef Communities?" Marine Pollution Bulletin 60 (11): 2117-2122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.08.015

Beyer, H. L., E. V. Kennedy, M. Beger, C. A. Chen, J. E. Cinner, E. S. Darling, C. M. Eakin, et al. 2018. "Risk-Sensitive Planning for Conserving Coral Reefs under Rapid Climate Change." Conservation Letters 109: e12587-10. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12587

Biasutti, M., A. H. Sobel, S. J. Camargo, and T. T. Creyts. 2012. "Projected Changes in the Physical Climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean." Climatic Change 112: 819-845. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0254-y

Blair, S., C. Adams, T. Ankerson, M. McGuire, and D. Kaplan. 2015. Ecosystem Services Valuation for Estuarine and Coastal Restoration in Florida. TP-204. Gainesville: University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/sg134

Bruno, J. F., E. R. Selig, K. S. Casey, C. A. Page, B. L. Willis, C. D. Harvell, H. Sweatman, and A. M. Melendy. 2007. "Thermal Stress and Coral Cover as Drivers of Coral Disease Outbreaks." PLOS Biology 5(6): e124. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0050124

Caldeira, K., and M. E. Wickett. 2003. "Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH." Nature 425: 365. https://doi.org/10.1038/425365a

Chassignet, E. P., J. W. Jones, V. Misra, and J. Obeysekera (Eds.). 2017. Florida's Climate: Changes, Variations, & Impacts. Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute. https://doi.org/10.17125/fci2017

Chen, C. C., and B. A. McCarl. 2001. "An Investigation of the Relationship between Pesticide Usage and Climate Change." Climatic Change 50 (4): 475-487. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010655503471

Coffey, R., M. J. Paul, J. Stamp, A. Hamilton, and T. Johnson. 2019. "A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 2: Nutrients, Algal Blooms, Sediment, Pathogens." Journal of the American Water Resources Association 55 (4): 844-868. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12711

Conley, D. J., H. W. Paerl, R. W. Howarth, D. F. Boesch, S. P. Seitzinger, K. E. Havens, C. Lancelot, and G. E. Likens. 2009. "Controlling Eutrophication: Nitrogen and Phosphorus." Science 323 (5917): 1014-1015. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1167755

Costanza, R., R. d'Arge, R. De Groot, S. Farber, and M. Grasso. 1997. "The Value of the World's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital." Nature: 253-260. https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0

Darling, E. S., and I. Cote. 2018. "Seeking Resilience in Marine Ecosystems." Science 359: 986-987. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9852

EPA. 1997. "Climate Change and Florida." Accessed on August 20, 2020. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/40000IY6.PDF?Dockey=40000IY6.PDF

Florida Automated Weather Network. 2018. "FAWN Irrigation Toolkit." https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/tools/scheduler/irrigation_scheduler.php

Flower, H., M. Rains, D. Lewis, J. Zhang, and R. Price. 2017. "Saltwater Intrusion as Potential Driver of Phosphorus Release from Limestone Bedrock in a Coastal Aquifer." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 184: 166-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.11.013

Havens, K. 2012. Effects of Climate Change on the Eutrophication of Lakes and Estuaries. SGEF-189. Gainesville: University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/sg127

Havens, K. 2017. Climate Change: Effects on Salinity in Florida's Estuaries and Responses of Oysters, Seagrass, and Other Animal and Plant Life. SGEF-218. Gainesville: University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/sg138

Havens, K., and T. Frazer. 2012. Rethinking the Role of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Eutrophication of Aquatic Ecosystems. SGEF190. Gainesville: University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/sg118

Hughes, J. D., and J. T. White. 2014. "Hydrologic Conditions in Urban Miami-Dade County, Florida, and the Effect of Groundwater Pumpage and Increased Sea Level on Canal Leakage and Regional Groundwater Flow (No. 2014-5162)." US Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20145162

Infanti, J. M., B. P. Kirtman, N. G. Aumen, J. Stamm, and C. Polsky. 2019. "Assessment of Uncertainty in Multi‐model Means of Downscaled South Florida Precipitation for Projected (2019-2099) Climate." International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6365

Karl, T. R. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Kundzewicz, Z. W., L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Döll, B. Jimenez, K. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Şen, and I. Shiklomanov. 2008. "The Implications of Projected Climate Change for Freshwater Resources and Their Management." Hydrological Sciences Journal 53(1): 3-10. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.1.3

Kurukulasuriya, P., and S. Rosenthal. 2013. "Climate Change and Agriculture: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations." Paper No. 91. The World Bank.

Lapointe, B. E., L. W. Herren, R. A. Brewton, and P. K. Alderman. 2020. "Nutrient Over-enrichment and Light Limitation of Seagrass Communities in the Indian River Lagoon, an Urbanized Subtropical Estuary." Science of the Total Environment 699: 134068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134068

Lapointe, B. E., and M. W. Clark. 1992. "Nutrient Inputs from the Watershed and Coastal Eutrophication in the Florida Keys." Estuaries 15: 465-13. https://doi.org/10.2307/1352391

Lesser, M. P. 1997. "Oxidative Stress Causes Coral Bleaching during Exposure to Elevated Temperatures." Coral Reefs 16: 187-192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003380050073

Loecke, T. D., A. J. Burgin, D. A. Riveros-Iregui, A. S. Ward, S. A. Thomas, C. A. Davis, and M. A. S. Clair. 2017. "Weather Whiplash in Agricultural Regions Drives Deterioration of Water Quality." Biogeochemistry 133: 7-15.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0315-z

Meeder, J. F., and R. W. Parkinson. 2017. "SE Saline Everglades Transgressive Sedimentation in Response to Historic Acceleration in Sea-Level Rise: A Viable Marker for the Base of the Anthropocene?" Journal of Coastal Research 34 (2): 490-497. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-17-00031.1

Miami-Dade Office of Resilience. 2016. "Final Report for Resolution R-48-15 in Support of the Sea Level Rise Task Force Final Recommendation-Attachment 4: Report on Flooding and Saltwater Intrusion." https://www.miamidade.gov/green/library/sea-level-rise-flooding-saltwater-intrusion.pdf

Mickelbart, M. V., P. M. Hasegawa, and J. Bailey-Serres. 2015. "Genetic Mechanisms of Abiotic Stress Tolerance That Translate to Crop Yield Stability." Nature Reviews Genetics 16 (4): 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrg3901

Obeysekera, J., W. Graham, M. C. Sukop, T. Asefa, D. Wang, K. Ghebremichael, and B. Mwashote. 2017. "Chapter 3: Implications of Climate Change on Florida's Water Resources." In Florida's Climate: Changes, Variations, & Impacts. Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute. https://doi.org/10.17125/fci2017.ch03

Obeysekera, J., J. Park, M. Irizarry-Ortiz, P. Trimble, J. Barnes, J. Vanarman, W. Said, and E. Gadzinski. 2011. Past and Projected Trends in Climate and Sea Level for South Florida. West Palm Beach, FL: South Florida Water Management District.

Paul, M. J., R. Coffey, J. Stamp, and T. Johnson. 2019. "A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion." Journal of the American Water Resources Association 55 (4): 824-843. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12710

Pershing, A. J., M. A. Alexander, C. M. Hernandez, L. A. Kerr, A. Le Bris, K. E. Mills, J. A. Nye, et al. 2015. "Slow Adaptation in the Face of Rapid Warming Leads to Collapse of the Gulf of Maine Cod Fishery." Science 350: 809. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac9819

Rahmstorf, S., J. E. Box, G. Feulner, M. E. Mann, A. Robinson, S. Rutherford, and E. J. Schaffernicht. 2015. "Exceptional Twentieth-Century Slowdown in Atlantic Ocean Overturning Circulation." Nature Climate Change 5: 475-480. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554

Rosenzweig, C., J. Phillips, R. Goldberg, J. Carroll, and T. Hodges. 1996. "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Citrus and Potato Production in the US." Agricultural Systems 52 (4): 455-479. https://doi.org/10.1016/0308-521X(95)00059-E

Schulte, P. M. 2015. "The Effects of Temperature on Aerobic Metabolism: Towards a Mechanistic Understanding of the Responses of Ectotherms to a Changing Environment." Journal of Experimental Biology 218: 1856-1866. https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.118851

Sévellec, F., A. V. Fedorov, and W. Liu. 2017. "Arctic Sea-Ice Decline Weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation." Nature Climate Change 7 (8): 604-610. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3353

Simpson, L. T., T. Z. Osborne, L. J. Duckett, and I. C. Feller. 2017. "Carbon Storages along a Climate Induced Coastal Wetland Gradient." Wetlands 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-017-0937-x

Sinha, E., A. M. Michalak, and V. Balaji. 2017. "Eutrophication Will Increase during the 21st Century as a Result of Precipitation Changes." Science 357: 405. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2409

Smith, S. V., and R. W. Buddemeier. 1992. "Global Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems." Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 89-118. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000513

Song, J., Y. Her, S. Shin, J. Cho, R. Paudel, Y. Khare, J. Obeysekera, and C. Martinez. 2020. "Evaluating the Performance of Climate Models in Reproducing the Hydrological Characteristics of Rainfall Events." Hydrological Sciences Journal 65(9): 1490-1511. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1750616

Swain, D. L., B. Langenbrunner, J. D. Neelin, and A. Hall. 2018. "Increasing Precipitation Volatility in Twenty-First-Century California." Nature Publishing Group: 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y

Todd, M. J., R. Muneepeerakul, F. Miralles-Wilhelm, A. Rinaldo, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe. 2012. "Possible Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological and Vegetative Character of Everglades National Park, Florida." Ecohydrology 5: 326-336. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.223

Tollefson, J. 2015. "UN Climate Reports Are Increasingly Unreadable." Nature News. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2015.18543

Tubiello, F. N., C. Rosenzweig, R. A. Goldberg, S. Jagtap, and J. W. Jones. 2002. "Effects of Climate Change on US Crop Production: Simulation Results Using Two Different GCM Scenarios. Part I: Wheat, Potato, Maize, and Citrus." Climate Research 20 (3): 259-270. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020259

USDA. 2012. "USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map." Accessed on August 20, 2020. https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov

Walthall, C. L., C. J. Anderson, L. H. Baumgard, E. Takle, and L. Wright-Morton. 2013. "Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation." https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_reports/1/

Wang, D., S. C. Hagen, and K. Alizad. 2013. "Climate Change Impact and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Apalachicola River Basin, Florida." Journal of Hydrology 480: 125-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.015

Wells, M. L., V. L. Trainer, T. J. Smayda, B. S. Karlson, C. G. Trick, R. M. Kudela, A. Ishikawa, et al. 2015. "Harmful Algal Blooms and Climate Change: Learning from the Past and Present to Forecast the Future." Harmful Algae 49: 68-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2015.07.009

Wilson, B. J., S. Servais, S. P. Charles, S. E. Davis, E. E. Gaiser, J. S. Kominoski, J. H. Richards, and T. G. Troxler. 2018. "Declines in Plant Productivity Drive Carbon Loss from Brackish Coastal Wetland Mesocosms Exposed to Saltwater Intrusion." Estuaries and Coasts 41 (8): 2147-2158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-018-0438-z

Copyright (c) 2020 UF/IFAS