Predictive Power of Sixth-Grade Achievement on Secondary Chemistry Academic Outcomes

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify student level characteristics that predicted both enrollment and achievement in 10th-grade chemistry courses. We obtained a large representative sample from an academic cohort drawn from a mid-sized metropolitan school district in Florida. Predictors were derived from school district archived data for sixth-grade students whom latter completed a science course in their sophomore year of high school. The predictors included letter grades, standardized test scores on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT), attendance rate, number of suspensions, and demographic data. Logistic regression demonstrated specificity for particular student attributes that contribute to the odds of enrollment into and, independently, the probability of successful chemistry courses achievement. The results demonstrated that female students were more likely to enroll in and pass a chemistry course than their male peers. Prior science achievement was the strongest predictor of high school chemistry course outcomes.