Predicting the potential distribution of Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in South Korea using a CLIMEX model

Resumen

Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) is a widely-distributed pest that feeds on many economically important hosts, particularly tropical fruits and ornamentals. The potential distribution of this mealybug pest in South Korea remains a primary concern because of its high incidence of interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, this species prompted a modelling effort to assess its potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for this pest with a CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s was projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results showed that P. longispinus has little potential for invasion in the outdoor environment of South Korea due to high cold stress in the 2020s. However, some locations in Jejudo were predicted to be marginally suitable under future climate factors. In that respect, the results of this model prediction could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early P. longispinus populations.