Predicting the potential distribution in South Korea of two mealybug species (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) intercepted on pineapples in quarantine

Abstract

Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and Dysmicoccus neobrevipes Beardsley are major pests of pineapples, ornamentals, and vegetable crops in many countries around the world. The potential distribution of these mealybug pests into South Korea remains a prime concern because of their high incidence in interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, these species prompted a modelling effort to assess their potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for these pests with the CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s is projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results show that D. brevipes and D. neobrevipes have little potential for invasion in the exterior environment of South Korea due to high cold stress. However, for D. brevipes, three locations in Jejudo were predicted to be marginally suitable for this pest under future climate factors. In that respect, the results of these model predictions could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early D. brevipes and D. neobrevipes populations.