A Sea Level Rise Impact Projection Study for Wakulla County, Florida

Abstract

Sea level rise related to climate change poses problems globally, resulting in frequent flooding, storm surges, economic losses, land inundation, reduced biodiversity, and forced migration.  Sea level rise can begin with nuisance flooding and saltwater intrusion and end with permanent land inundation.  With its 1,350 miles of coastline, Florida is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.  This study analyzes how a sea level rise scenario can affect property and socially vulnerable populations in Wakulla County, Florida, in 2050.  Our study focuses on permanent inundation.  Findings reveal that the total just value of affected properties ranges from $225 million to $350 million in today’s dollars, predominantly impacting residential homes.  Social vulnerability analysis shows increased vulnerability for Socioeconomic and Household & Disability themes for residents living within areas at risk of permanent inundation.  The analysis indicates minimal variations in the vulnerability themes of Ethnicity & Language and Housing & Transportation. This study can serve as a framework for other Florida counties implementing sea level studies.

Keywords: Sea level rise, social vulnerability, GIS, Florida Statute, property risk.