Predicting the Potential Worldwide Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus Ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Using Ecological Niche Modeling
Abstract
The red palm weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), ranks among the most important pests of various palm species. The pest originates from South and Southeast Asia, but has expanded its range dramatically since the 1980s. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches to explore its likely geographic potential. Two techniques, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and a maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt), were used. However, MaxEnt provided more significant results, with all 5 random replicate subsamples having P < 0.002 while GARP models failed to achieve statistical significance in 3 of 5 cases, in which predictions achieved probabilities of 0.07 < P < 0.10. The MaxEnt models predicted successfully the known distribution, including the single North American occurrence point of Laguna Beach, California, and various areas where the pest has been reported in North Africa, southern Europe, Middle East and South and Southeastern Asia. In addition, areas where the pest has not been yet reported were found to be suitable for invasion by RPW in sub-Saharan Africa, southern, central and northern America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Highly suitable areas in the United States of America were limited mostly to coastal California and southern Florida, while all Caribbean islands were found highly suitable for establishment and spread of the pest.Resumen: El gorgojo rojo de palmeras, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), se cuenta entre las plagas más importantes para varias especies de palmeras. Este insecto se origina del sur y sureste de Asía, pero se ha extendido su área de distribución dramáticamente desde los 1980s. Aquí usamos técnicas de modelaje de nicho ecológico para explorar su potencial geográfico probable. Se usaron dos métodos, el «Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction» (GARP) y una implementación de entropía máxima (MaxEnt). MaxEnt rindió resultados más significativos, con probabilidades en 5 random replicate subsamples de P < 0.002, mientras modelos de GARP fallaron en lograr significancia estadística en 3 casos de 5. Los modelos de MaxEnt lograron anticipar su distribución conocida, incluyendo al único lugar en Norteamérica en donde se conoce su ocurrencia y áreas en donde esta especie se ha reportado en el norte de África, sur de Europa, Medio Oriente, y el sur y sureste de Asía. Además, algunos sitios de donde no se ha reportado aún se identificaron como apropiado ambientalmente para esta especie, incluyendo a África al sur del Desierto de Sahara, mucho de las Américas, Asía, Europa y Oceanía. Zonas apropiadas de los EEUU se limitan principalmente a la costa de California y al sur de Florida; mucho del Caribe se encuentra altamente apropiado para esta especie.
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