Florida Has a Prison Problem: Examining the Relationship Between Socioeconomic Factors, Public Safety Budgets and Arrest Rates in Bay County Florida

Abstract

With an arrest rate of about 3,000 people per 100,000 and an incarceration rate of 795 per 100,000, Florida’s incarceration rates exceed international norms (Prison Policy Initiative, 2022). Between 2010 and 2019, that rate peaked in Bay County, where there were 9,472 arrests per 100,000 in 2019 alone. Ample research has been conducted on predictors of mass incarceration, but a gap persists in county-level analysis regarding mass incarceration in Florida. Our study seeks to identify which socioeconomic factors most significantly contribute to elevated arrest rates in Florida by focusing on Bay County. A 10-year sample of Bay County’s socioeconomic trends and arrest rates were compared to four other demographically comparable counties to clarify where Bay County’s trends remained unique. Descriptive statistics suggested that the strongest predictors of arrest rate in Bay County were eviction rate, poverty rate and county-allocated funds for public safety spending. Sociological implications of high arrest rates and mass incarceration are discussed.