THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRORIST NETWORKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Abstract

Across the Middle East, terrorist organizations such as Da’esh have successfully exploited environmental conditions in pursuit of their objectives. Through targeting vulnerable populations affected by the early stages of climate change, Da’esh has been able to successfully supplant the government in certain regions of Iraq and Syria, including the major cities of Mosul and Raqqa. Exploiting these governments’ inability to relieve those affected by environmental disasters, Da’esh has proven that terrorist groups will be able to thrive throughout the 21^st century, as changing climate conditions create suitable grounds for the emergence and success of terrorism. In the event that IPCC-projected climate change does occur, we can expect that much of the Middle East will become even more fertile for the cultivation of terrorist and insurgency groups. As a warming atmosphere forces millions into poverty and water scarcity reaches an alarming peak, terrorist organizations will have the capacity to prey upon the vulnerabilities of the destitute and disenfranchised, potentially growing more and more powerful until the power of these groups rivals and surpasses that of local governments.