A Novel Association and Ranking Approach Identifies Factors Affecting Educational Outcomes of STEM Majors

Abstract

Improving undergraduate success in STEM requires identifying actionable factors that impact student outcomes, allowing institutions to prioritize key leverage points for change. Based on Astin’s Input–Environment–Output model, we examined academic, demographic, and institutional factors that might be associated with graduation rates of STEM majors at two private four-year colleges in the northeastern United States using a novel association algorithm called D-basis to rank attributes associated with graduation. Importantly, the data included outcomes of students who left their original institutions. Key attributes associated with graduation included performance in introductory STEM courses, the choice of first mathematics class, and flexibility in major selection. Specifically, high grades in introductory biology, general chemistry, and mathematics courses were strongly associated with graduation. Students who changed majors—especially from STEM to non-STEM—also had higher overall graduation rates. Financial need and demographic factors, although less predictive overall, revealed disparities in time to graduation. The findings highlight the importance of early academic support to enhance student success in STEM gateway courses and the implementation of institutional policies that provide flexibility in major selection. This study offers data-driven insights to guide strategies to increase bachelor’s degree completion.