An Evaluation of the USACE's Deepwater Wave Prediction Techniques under Hurricane Conditions During Georges in 1998

Abstract

The Shore Protection Manual published by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 1984 provides hurricane wave prediction techniques. On 27 September, 1998, Hurricane Georges moved into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. During this period, a network of 5 surface stations operated by the National Data Buoy Center recorded simultaneously atmospheric pressure and significant wave height and period. In addition, both satellite and aircraft measurements were obtained. All of these data sets were employed to evaluate the prediction techniques as provided in the Shore Protection Manual. It is shown that the radius of maximum wind as determined by the surface network is in good agreement with both satellite and aircraft measurements. The predicted significant wave height and period are also consistent with buoy measurements. Finally, in order to estimate the significant wave height away from the radius of maximum wind, the graphs in the Shore Protection Manual were digitized and incorporated into a linear regression analysis. Using two buoys, one near the radius of maximum wind and the other away from it, this statistical method provides a reasonable agreement between prediction and measurement for practical applications.