A New Methodological Contribution to Forecast Extreme Damaging Events: An Application to Extreme Marine Floodings in Venice, Italy

Authors

  • A. Palumbo

Keywords:

Marine flood models, extreme events, coastal floods, flood frequency analysis, power keyword models

Abstract

A new general predictable model of the evolution of the systems driven by the autoorganized criticality has been set up. The model based on the time gap and on the energy released from last event on one hand, and on the return period on the other, is proposed in terms of an orbit of a simple non- linear function. The model tested on the extreme floodings recorded in Venice, provided estimates of the probability of the time occurrence and of the heights of the floods very closed to the observed ones.

 

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Published

1997-07-05

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 3 (1997): Journal of Coastal Research

Section

Articles

License

Authorization for personal use is granted by the Coastal Education and Research Foundation [CERF]. By submitting a manuscript, the authors agree that the copyright for their article is transferred to the publisher if the article is accepted for publication. Assignment of copyright is not required, however, from authors who work for organizations which do not permit such assignment, The copyright covers the exclusive rights to reprduce and distribute the article, inclduing reprints, photographic reproductions, microform, or any other reproductions of a similar nature, and translations.