Vol. 125 (2012): Proceedings of the Florida State Horticultural Society
Citrus

An Economic Model of Long-run Supply and Demand Forecasts for Florida Oranges

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  • Matthew J Salois,
  • Carlos E Jauregui,
  • Mark G Brown
Matthew J Salois
Florida Department of Citrus, Economic and Market Research Department, University of Florida, 2125 McCarty Hall, P.O. Box 110249, Gainesville, FL 32611-0249
Carlos E Jauregui
Florida Department of Citrus, Economic and Market Research Department, University of Florida, 2125 McCarty Hall, P.O. Box 110249, Gainesville, FL 32611-0249
Mark G Brown
Florida Department of Citrus, Economic and Market Research Department, University of Florida, 2125 McCarty Hall, P.O. Box 110249, Gainesville, FL 32611-0249

Published 2012-12-01

Keywords

  • econometric model,
  • elasticity,
  • forecast,
  • orange juice

Abstract

This paper presents an economic model of long-run production and consumption forecasts for Florida oranges. This is accomplished through a quantitative model of the world orange juice market. By conducting model simulations, possible answers to key questions about the future of the Florida citrus industry are provided. Will prices be high enough to cover costs? What will be the size of the Florida citrus industry in the future? What will be the impact of the citrus industry on the Florida economy? Although answers to such questions can only be provided in a probabilistic sense, such answers are critical for future planning purposes.

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