Modeling and Visualizing Honey Bee Colony Loss using USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Survey Data

Abstract

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) play a critical role in agricultural production and ecosystem stability through their pollination of essential food crops and plants. Over recent decades, Beekeepers in the United States have experienced alarming losses of their managed colonies. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has collected data through three national surveys. The Colony Loss Survey provides a range of information from the total number of colonies added and lost to the number of colonies affected by significant colony health stressors, such as pests and pesticides. This thesis characterizes historical trends in U.S. honey bee colony counts using the publicly available USDA-NASS Colony Loss Survey data, explores factors associated with colony loss through visual and descriptive statistics, and develops predictive models to forecast future colony numbers. By combining historical trends with predictive modeling, this paper aims to improve understanding of trends and support conservation and management efforts.