The Recent Expansion of Militias in West Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates the geographic expansion of militias in West Africa since the early 2010s. Is the increase of violence observed in West Africa politically motivated, or is it driven by identity factors, such as ethnicity and religion? To address this question, we examine the geography of political militias and identity militias from 2011 to 2024, using Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Political militias are motivated to further their political objectives through violent means, while identity militias are organized around community, ethnicity, region, religion or livelihood. This research assesses three critical dimensions: (1) changes in the intensity of violent events, (2) shifts in the spatial concentration of these events, and (3) differences in spatial patterns between political and identity militias over time. The analysis concentrates on seven countries where armed conflict has significantly escalated from the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger) to the Gulf of Guinea’s coastal nations (Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire). Intensity measures reveal whether these conflicts have escalated in frequency or lethality, while spatial analyses assess whether violence has become more geographically clustered or dispersed within and between countries. The findings in this paper offer insights into the dynamic behavior of militia violence, exploring how these violent actors may be adapting their geographic footprint and levels of violence. By evaluating the evolving intensity, concentration, and patterns of militia activity, this research provides a critical understanding of how non-state actors influence the regional security landscape in West Africa.