Emergence of Artificial Intelligence on Projected U.S. Employment

Abstract

The recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and its rapid integration into various aspects of life have become a focal point of concern, especially in regards to potential consequences on the workforce. Since AI has seen the most transformation post-2020, this study aims to analyze the role of AI exposure within an occupation on projected 10-year changes in employment using the most recent available data from 2022 (pulled from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Through forward selection in ordinary least squares method, after controlling for task offshorability, education, work experience, and on-the-job training, it was found that a 1 standard deviation increase in AI exposure index is associated with a projected decrease of 1.043 percentage points in jobs on average within an occupation. This finding supports the growing concern of AI-driven job displacement and/or unemployment, which could heighten the burden on the government to fund welfare programs and potentially lead to recession. This paper further highlights the need for policy discussions on fostering a more balanced integration of AI into the workforce, possibly through specialized education and retraining programs.