Prediction of Solar Flares Using Photospheric Magnetic Field Parameters with Deep Learning

Abstract

Solar flares, particularly those of the M- and X-class, have a significant impact on human life because of their potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and communication systems on Earth. Accurate prediction of solar flares is crucial for mitigating these risks, but the black-box nature of conventional deep learning models used in flare prediction limits their trustworthiness and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new approach to solar flare prediction using photospheric magnetic field parameters or features with deep learning. To improve model interpretability, we integrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques,
including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), into our prediction framework. XAI methods provide transparency by analyzing the importance and interactions of features used by our model. Specifically, SHAP values offer a global and local understanding of the features, while PDPs provide insights into feature-level trends. These techniques demonstrate the potential of XAI in deploying AI-driven solutions in high-impact applications such as solar flare prediction, paving the way for more informed decision-making in solar physics and space weather studies.