River Transport Disasters and Systemic State Vulnerability in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Evidence from the 2025 Équateur Shipwrecks

Abstract

River transport disasters are recurrent in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), yet they are often treated as isolated humanitarian events rather than symptoms of broader systemic vulnerabilities. Based on fieldwork conducted between 2023 and 2025 in Équateur province including 47 interviews, participant observation, and analysis of incident documentation; this study examines five major shipwrecks in 2025 that resulted in an estimated 734 deaths. Using a multidimensional vulnerability assessment framework, the article demonstrates how recurrent river disasters emerge from failures in governance capacity, infrastructure regulation, territorial oversight, and information integrity. The findings show that these events contribute to cumulative erosion of state legitimacy, socio-economic resilience, and territorial cohesion, while creating structural exposure that could be exploited by non-state actors. The article argues that river transport governance should be understood as a key vector of state fragility and a strategic priority for resilience-building in the DRC.